Euro Mixed Ahead Of Eurozone GDP Data

04 Août, 2017, 20:53 | Author: Marc Bacque
  • BNY Mellon's Derrick Says Euro Has Room to Appreciate

GBP EUR began the week trading at around 1.1174 and has trended in a narrow range between 1.1145 and 1.1206 since then.

While Sterling benefitted briefly from the strong United Kingdom manufacturing PMI earlier in the week, it was unable to sustain any gains and still trends near the week's opening levels.

But they slightly lowered inflation forecasts - nothing huge. Meanwhile, construction companies are now still being squeezed by elevated input costs.

The construction report held Sterling back yesterday as investors awaited Thursday's key session.

The services index, forecast to inch up to 53.6 from 53.4, clocked in at 53.8 - a relief given that the sector was entirely responsible for GDP growth during the second-quarter.

The Euro outlook is unlikely to change notably until next week, when June trade balances will come in from France and Germany, and Germany's final July inflation report will be published.

Wednesday's Eurozone data was largely low-influence.

While the Euro could see some further support if Friday's German factory and construction data impresses, the GBP EUR forecast is more likely to be influenced by United Kingdom news towards the end of the week.

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The Euro has also benefitted this week from broad weakness in its major rival, the US Dollar (USD).

The pound slid from an 11-month high versus the dollar and United Kingdom government bonds rallied after the Bank of England voted to keep interest rates unchanged, while also cutting the country's economic growth forecast. Quarterly growth edged up from 0.5 percent at the start of the year, while year on year growth leapt to 2.1 percent from 1.9 percent, according to official figures from Eurostat.

However, Sterling's PMI-related gains have been limited as investors are waiting for the Bank of England (BoE) to hold its August policy decision before making any big moves on the Pound. We have the United Kingdom inflation hearings and also the BOE rate announcement and statement as well.

Ian McCafferty has already indicated he is likely to push for higher interest rates, while Michael Saunders voted at the last meeting in favour of monetary tightening, so may do so again.

Analysts predict two BoE policymakers will vote to hike rates this week.

It also fell around a cent against the dollar, plumbing a three-day low of $1.3140, having earlier reached an 11-month high of $1.3267 against the USA currency.

If there are more hawks than expected though, Sterling will surge and should easily recover against the Euro.

Markit's final July PMIs for the Eurozone have fallen short of expectations, indicating the Eurozone's private activity wasn't as strong in July as forecast.



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