Sondage: Macron et Le Pen restent en tête

20 Avril, 2017, 10:34 | Author: Loic Jullien
  • Combo réalisé le 3 avril 2017 des deux candidats en tête des sondages de la présidentielle Emmanuel Macron le candidat d'En marche! et la présidente du Front national Marine Le Pen.- Eric FEFERBERG JOEL SAGET- AFP  Archives

Les choses sont bien différentes depuis quelques jours. Cette semaine il sera jeudi dans l'Yonne puis dans les Deux-Sèvres, vendredi à Sochaux, et dimanche dans l'Aisne pour la commémoration de la bataille du Chemin des Dames.

"Jamais une élection présidentielle française n'a été aussi incertaine", a souligné le directeur du Centre d'études et de recherches internationales de l'Université de Montréal (CÉRIUM), Frédéric Mérand, en entrevue téléphonique. "L'indécision, principal favori à une semaine du premier tour", titre "Le Monde", notant que les états-majors préparent le sprint final dans un contexte inédit.

Les quatre candidats restent donc dans un mouchoir de poche. C'est sur les quatre. Certains se sont en effet détournés du candidat de la France Insoumise et ont l'intention de voter pour Marine Le Pen. En 2012, des sites web belges et suisses ont annoncé la victoire de Hollande au second tour avant 15h.

Largement distancé, le candidat socialiste Benoît Hamon gagne un point, à 8,5%, interrompant le mouvement d'érosion des intentions de vote en sa faveur entamé fin février.

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Claire Durand, une spécialiste des sondages, dit qu'elle serait "énormément" étonnée que M. Mélenchon se rende au deuxième tour, notamment parce que traditionnellement, en France, la gauche est surestimée dans les sondages. François Fillon bénéficie d'un taux de sûreté du vote de 81 % (+ 3 points), Jean-Luc Mélenchon de 75 % (+ 9) et Emmanuel Macron de 74 % (+ 7). "Je suis inquiète. On est déjà dans le second tour car Marine Le Pen menace de faire un score très important (.) Moi, je ne voudrais pas me réveiller lundi matin avec un second tour Le Pen-Fillon".

"Là où ça pourrait se corser, c'est si Fillon aussi est sous-évalué, et ça aussi c'est une possibilité", a-t-elle ajouté.

À l'heure des ultimes meetings, les onze candidats à l'élection présidentielle abattent leurs dernières cartes pour convaincre les nombreux indécis.

Mais juste derrière eux, deux candidats n'ont pas dit leur dernier mot. François Fillon perd lui aussi 1 point à 19 % des intentions de vote, toujours à égalité avec Mélenchon, avec un socle électoral solide: 81 % de ses électeurs potentiels sont sûrs de leur choix. Ensuite, Jean-Luc Mélenchon voit sa remontada enfin freinée après une progression constante depuis le 17 mars. Peut-être une des raisons qui l'incite à ne plus se rendre aux rendez-vous proposés par le journaliste Jean-Jacques Bourdin. Le candidat centriste continue à capitaliser sur le sans-faute de sa campagne, et à rallier tant les désolés du PS, qui ne croient plus à Hamon et se défient de Mélenchon, que ceux qui, à droite, détestent autant le conservatisme de Fillon que les traces de bottes de la présidente du FN.

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